Monday, 18 January 2016

My investment "Inside-Out"

Anxiety, fear, greed, over-confidence.... we are often overwhelmed by many emotions when navigating through our investment decisions. Thus, I have made it a habit to document and reflect upon those emotions together with investment mistakes that I've made. I know otherwise I would have the tendency to keep repeating my old mistakes.

So I have created an Inside-Out table in an excel sheet format. (Yes, the boring excel sheet is a wonderful tool for all sorts of investment recordings.) The table has got three columns which runs down chronologically. One column is the date, one is the emotions or 'how I was feeling at that point' and the third is a description of the mistakes made. 'How I am feeling' column is filled according to my emotion that triggered the mistake at that point when I made the decision.

I find this chart very useful in helping me to identify and keep track of which emotions hindered my investment decisions. This is an example of my "Inside-Out" table:

Sunday, 17 January 2016

Keppel Corp - signs of oversold?

I seldom put up speculative posts, but can't resist one here. Maybe signs of oversold have been long overdue but now is SUPER oversold.

BN4
All time high this year: $9.54
All time low this year: $4.82

RSI is at extreme low of 30.67.

Volumes are higher than usual last week plus consecutive price falls are indicative of big sell-down. Are investors capitulating or what? (And I also wonder if brokerages have enough shares to lend those short traders.)

DateOpenHighLowCloseVolumeAdj Close*
Jan 15, 20164.954.984.824.8410,188,0004.84
Jan 14, 20164.975.004.864.8617,776,1004.86
Jan 13, 20165.215.285.105.1914,299,3005.19
Jan 12, 20165.505.535.155.1518,285,7005.15
Jan 11, 20165.705.715.505.5411,156,5005.54
Jan 8, 20165.685.915.625.8013,107,6005.80
Jan 7, 20166.156.155.815.8219,195,8005.82
Jan 6, 20166.426.436.216.239,350,4006.23

Bollinger band is no where near narrowing, guess the price would fall further but should be seeing consolidation soon if volume dwindles in the coming weeks. 1 year low touched: $3.56

No near term signs of reversal (but I think might be near).

The Sete Brasil threat is still on the brink. The outcome would impact its share price and determine the coming support level.
--------------------------

A side note for DBS: No buy
1 year RSI 34.41
5 years low: $11.52
Bargain pick point below $12?

A side note for OCBC: No buy
1 year RSI 36.63
Retesting 5 years low at $7.66
Wait and see if will support or break below.

I seldom work with TA, so anyone with differing views / indicators usage please enlighten.

Just wondering is there any point in buying STI ETF if one want to bottom-fish the worst performing big blue chips in the STI ETF (since the strength of STI recovery is dependent on these unwell big fishes).

My take now is to nibble slowly alas get indigestion.

******
Mini update from external source:

Analysts came up with an article today 19/01/16 saying that the Keppel share price has fallen to the point where O&M sectored has been valued to below zero - http://singaporestockmarketnews.com/2016/01/keppel-corp-buy-keppel-and-get-offshore-division-free/


Disclaimer: The information here is for reference purpose and does not serve as investment advice. Please exercise your own discretion in using them.

Saturday, 16 January 2016

Confused about the market?

Read the story of 'blind men and an elephant'.



With so many information about the market and investment opportunities available to us - from news, charts, books, blogs, company websites, forecasts to advices from gurus, how many of us are NOT just 'seeing' the things we want to 'see' and noises we want to 'hear'?


We not born investors or traders in the market. Most of us started off like blind men feeling the elephant.


Don't despair, it's not end of the story yet.

Thursday, 14 January 2016

A mock S-REIT portfolio (2)

About one month ago, I created a mock basket of S-REIT portfolio. Let's see how these 'kembings' (every week I learn new terms from SMOL) have fared through Nov and Dec...


Market $ Entry $ * div yield% Shares Amount
Reits
Ascendas Hosp Trust 0.73 6.90 4800 $3,504
First Reit - health 1.17 7.00 2600 $3,029
CDL hosp 1.30 7.30 2300 $2,979
Ascott hosp 1.13 7.50 2500 $2,813
Mapletree logistics 0.98 7.60 2800 $2,744
Lippomall 0.30 10.70 10000 $2,950
Starhill global 0.74 7.10 3000 $2,205
Frasers Centrepoint 1.86 6.20 1600 $2,976
Ireit 0.66 9.69 4000 $2,640
CapitaRetailChina 1.40 1.335 7.50 3000 $4,005
0.982778 7.75 $29,844
*16/01/16 - Edited dividend yield according to market$. P/B and EV/EBIT removed. You could refer here for a gauge.

The reits in total have dropped a mere 0.7%. Looks like they are a bunch of resilient kembings against the bear uh. Let's do a little more probing.

As you can see the winner of the lot is kembing no 1 Ascendas-h! Why?
You might want to read: http://www.sreitinvestmentblog.sg/2015/12/analysis-of-ascendas-hospitality-trust.html
Rainbow sheep strange but,cool!
Let's see who has more wool!
Source: http://www.jigidi.com/puzzle.php?id=WV71O1ZI

CapitalRetailChina, on the other hand, was around $1.48-$1.50 then (sorry missed out market$ in the earlier chart) and has suffered the biggest drop. That was quite expected. I have offloaded partially to see if can buy back at a lower price later. (Buy volume must have been poor, because lehlong also nobody want to buy my full load.)

Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Revisit: Buying into the right business

When we buy stocks, we are actually buying into those businesses. So when you own the shares of example company A, you are actually buying into a small portion of company A's business. That is stocks in a nutshell.

Of course you would want to make sure that company A is doing very well with your money running its businesses and wish it has the potential to grow stronger - such that it's earning will increase and demands for its stock will go up, in turn leading to increase in its share price. Stock market is a weighing machine in the long run.

Here are some very useful notes sourced from http://wiki.masterlifefaster.com/Home/investing which is modified from Buffettology:

Monday, 11 January 2016

Lessons from 2015 that send me cringing

Read: The Prologue

Lessons learnt from Mr Stock Market:

  1. What looked like 'pretty good' deals then (in a bull or not-yet bear market), do not look good now (bearish market). Perspectives change together with market outlook and current stock prices. Although it would be good opportunity for some value fishing.

  2. Dividends in good times should be put into my pocket
    When a stock's share price is high, it's dividend option for reinvestment would be pegged to a lower price then the current share price. This makes getting scrap dividend shares look like premium. This would not be the case when the stock price plumage, as I could have used the dividend payout money to buy the shares at a cheaper price now when the market drops. Conversely, it would be a good idea to get dividend shares when the market price is low.

Saturday, 9 January 2016

The Dividend Trap

Looking at the sea of red suddenly gives me a lot of inspiration to write. In times of peace I was like in slumberland (for finance blogging). So while I am awake, I wanna shoot this very trendy investment term - DIVIDEND.

Is dividend yield most important when you make a stock selection?

Do you frequently look at dividend trackers?

Is your investing goal or objectives mostly revolving around dividends?

If all your answers are yes, then you might have fallen into the 'Dividend trap'.


Friday, 8 January 2016

Time to learn from old times bloggers

In the volatile bear market which has the potential to become even more bearish, it is time to dig up and revisit OLD posts (and any of past reflections) of finance bloggers who have been through the Great Bear markets. Those with scar wounds but survived with gut of steel to tell the stories are the best ones to learn from. Just browse through thefinance.sg or some of my favourite blogs at the side bar and you might discover them.

Why do that? It is always less painful to learn from others' mistakes.
A good read from BigFatPurse
From Createwealth8888 - Harsh lessons from 1997/98 and 2007/08 stock crisis

On the contrary, you could argue that one would remember the pain better if learnt from one's own fall. Just don't purposely go and fall down to learn.

What are some recommended topics to review?

Wednesday, 6 January 2016

A brief market review


Read:
The Impact of the Likely U.S. Rate Hike on Asian Equity Markets

"Although QE tapering and rate hiking are two separate issues, the implication to the markets is similar, namely rising interest rates, tightening capital funding, capital outflow from emerging economies, and currency instability. All of these will have a much worse impact on economies with large current account deficits, high external borrowing relative to reserves, high inflation, and deterioration in economic fundamentals."

"That period of rate hiking had the worst effect on the U.S. bond market compared to the other two, during which the Fed took more measured paces. The impact was more pronounced on Asian equity markets than that of the U.S."

  • Although 2016 market has a gloomy start, but I think the turbulence is far from GFC and subprime unless *touchwood* some canon got triggered again. Fed's rates hike spells confidence in the US economies, Yuan's depreciation might boost export from China, oil prices benefit emerging Asian economies but hindered the stock growth.
  • Caution is to be exercised in commodities, bonds and cyclical stocks
  • As we can observe from previous crises, dip was fast but rebound was fast as well. It's a matter of how you buy into the dips those stocks that are fundamentally sound to benefit from the gains.
  • STI hasn't quite come to the big dip yet if you look at it over years long time frame (chart above). I would expect the conservative support to be at 2500 to 2600 range if investors continue on sell-down this year (for whatever reasons that I can't foresee).

Saturday, 2 January 2016

A personal to do list 2016

From past experiences, 'resolution' and 'wishlist' don't work. So this year I came up with a 'to do' list.
'To do' things are things that are fully within my control and can be done by myself. I realised when I was younger I tend to be more idealistic, now I know expectations are inward-out not outward-in.

1) Enrol in pilate or gym (body building) course, go swimming more regularly. I need to find back my six-pack and stamina. If I don't enrol in any class, I have no discipline to follow through.

2) Reduce my personal store of inventory - donate, give away, sell away. Cannot be bogged down by so many things due to plan of moving out. I am trying to do the maths if renting a space for my stuff is worth it.

Don't try to catch fish in muddy water



He waded into muddy water hoping to catch big fish: He entered a stock position of which he is unclear of the company and stock price situation.

He stand in the muddy water and hope the big fish swim would swim into his net: He just waited and hope the price would change to his favour.

Even when a fish does swim into his net, he doesn't know to pick it up and leave: Even when the stock price does a small rebound he refused to sell his position.

He remained stuck in the muddy water.


That's the story of a speculator.


There could be no fish at all to catch. He could be just wasting his time and effort.

Maybe there are big fish but how would he know? Guess work?

Maybe when one day enlightenment decides to shine down, the muddy water would clear up and then he would know whether there's fish or no fish to catch.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Any muddy waters have you waded in before? Care to share your catch or experience?

[Quote: Olam, Noble group, Silverlake axis, MIIF, Cosco corp...]
Source: https://www.pinterest.com/slamxbaits/fishing-meme/

Friday, 1 January 2016

Happy new year 2016: Have boat-rowing fun!

In this new year, I want to share an old Running Man episode with you. For some strange reason, the producer likes to make the RM sail across the Hangang and it's the nth time they are building boats from scratch.

RM is my favourite variety show - not just for entertainment but sometimes there are valuable life lessons to take away as well. I always admire the cast's courage and determination in overcoming all the challenges and obstacles thrown to them. Sit back, relax and enjoy the video ☕. http://kshowonline.com/kshow/1827-[engsub]-running-man-ep.187

Then read on. ;)

Image result for running man boat

Don't be afraid to speak up
If you want to be chosen then voice out and show through your actions.


Boats that are overly light-weight are often harder to steer (towards the goal).
Because they get swept away more easily by the currant. Are we persons of heavy principles or little to no principles in life?


Even the seemingly useless materials can have their own WORTH. 
Just make the most out of every resources you have on hand.


It takes (many) FAILURES to learn the secret of SUCCESS.
After experiencing boat capsizing, balloon ruining, the teams have learnt what is the best way of doing the job...


TECHNIQUE matters, so get it right and stick with it.
You thought it's common sense not to steer with the edge of the oar? But some just can't seem to steer with the flat of their oars throughout a stroke and in a uniform direction.


Don't build your boat too fancifully. 
It would obstruct your oars and your ability to control the boat. Be simple and practical.


Never succumb - even if you started off from the last position.
HARDWORK and PERSEVERANCE are your hope to coming in first in the race. And it can happen!

***
Here I wish all my readers and fellow bloggers good health and much wealth in year 2016! (✿◠‿◠)
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