Wednesday, 29 September 2010

Advice from the guru and lessons learnt

In the Money Week (TV show on Channel 8), the stocks guru Mr Hu Li Yang mentioned that if a stock you chose drops while overall stocks in the market are rising, that would imply your stock is 'sick' and you should be alarmed by this signal.

I do not agree with all of his statements, one of which is about buying up and selling down. If the statement he made above is true then I have to re-look at two of my stocks, which failed to break their resistances since I bought many months back, despite the market doing better than then. I should know better than to buy on gut instinct and reading some optimistic posts about the company. I regretted not following my gut instinct that time about Genting SP when it dropped to 0.80+ the commentaries were all against it rating it's support at 0.60. Suddenly it emerged as a multi-bagger stock. I wondered if any guru would have guess it can hit a whooping $2. After a period of over-chase, it's price is finally cooling off - closed today at 1.90 with 197,451,000 in volume. I wonder what will be it's new support price in the days to come...

The 2nd lesson I have learnt (from MIIF) is not to chase a rising stock and be PATIENT. Once again, I failed to buy at the support level.

While looking at TA (technical analysis), one should also be aware of market sentiments and human psychology because there is NO SUCH THING as a rational market. The technical charts are just guides (some people believe in using those to gauge entry and exit prices) but what will become of a stock in the future is hard to trendline. Moreover, how a stock performs would depend on the macro-environment, which is the market / industry outlook, and the micro-environment, which is how the company manages and runs its business.

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Tuesday, 28 September 2010

6 of Asia's most expensive homes

Skyscraper for a home? See this link http://www.cnngo.com/explorations/none/6-asias-most-expensive-houses-820027

Now, which is the one you aspire to live in the most if you have that kind of money?

These homes seem more like museums to me really. Find them too extravagant to be called homes... well, maybe not for these billionaires who are overflowing with monies in their banks. For somebody like me who have been staying in a small Singapore flat all my life, it's hard to imagine how living in HUGE spaces like those would feel like.

Shiok or not? Would people lose their way in there? Do they truely qualify as cozy and comfy?

To me, I would think that living with a warm close-knitted family in any decent housing would very much suffice as cozy and comfy. =)

Saturday, 25 September 2010

Current phone plan

I probably have one of the most economical phone plan around - Starhub 3G Power Now 160 (don't think it's available for subscription anymore) and am quite happy with it. the basic charge is only $20 prior to GST which includes 160 minutes talk time that can be rolled over, 500 free SMS, free incoming voice calls on weekend and recently I discovered that Data usage within Gee! is FREE. Woohoot!

I only discovered this after I started logging on to MSN via mobile and the bill indicated that the data usage are uncharged. I tried to find which are the websites that fall within Gee! and which are those that fall outside Gee! (charged) but couldn't find any useful information on the Starhub website. Does anybody know? Hmm maybe I would call up to check with them.

My contract is ending next year. Contemplating whether I should get the all-famous iphone. That would mean I have to give up this plan and get a 30 over dollars monthly iphone plan... wonder if it's worth it. Alternatively, is to get an iphone without the mobile plan which would means paying the FULL price for it. The basic iPhone 4 16 GB handset will cost $480 through SingTel's iFlexi Lite plan, with a monthly fee of $39. Starhub's 3G SmartSurf 100 prices the same model at $500, with a monthly fee of $38. M1's Value plan for $480, plus the lowest monthly fee of $36. Apple selling without plans at $888.

From what I observed when I am outside, about 4 out of 5 people I see with a mobile are using iphones. Is it just a hype? Another time-consuming device that get you hooked? Or is it, as my partner at work says, a life-changing experience? It leaves me pondering... perhaps it's just those free Apps that make it oh-so-attractive, but will Apple decide to convert them to payable services one fine day?Another option would be to get an Android phone if I want more 'sophisticated' functions than just calls and SMS, although I haven't much of an idea how fantastic it is (I still haven't figured out what a Blackberry does btw). Saw an article here. Since I figured it would have WiFi, then I can use Wireless@SG to surf free anyway which means I do not have to get some expensive data plan. =)

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Wednesday, 22 September 2010

Will the new support level stay?

STI exceeded 3100 pts today.
MIIF and Oceanus looking good. ComfortDelgro still sluggish at 1.54.


Support at 0.85

Support at 3.90, resistance at 4.20

Monday, 20 September 2010

Wise quotes (Warren Buffett) series #1

The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities -- that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future -- will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There's a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.

- Berkshire Hathaway 2000 Chairman's Letter
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The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage.

--Warren Buffett, Fortune magazine, 11/22/99
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The most common cause of low prices is pessimism - some times pervasive, some times specific to a company or industry. We want to do business in such an environment, not because we like pessimism but because we like the prices it produces. It's optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer.
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Time is the enemy of the poor business and the friend of the great business. If you have a business that's earning 20%-25% on equity, time is your friend. But time is your enemy if your money is in a low return business.

--Warren Buffett, 1998 Berkshire Annual Meeting
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Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.
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Sunday, 5 September 2010

Be an INVESTOR and not a TRADER

Some TIPS gathered from the book Techinical Analysis Demystified:

  • Do not be influenced by other's views, make independent decisions
  • If the market cannot move up on good news, sell fast. If the market cannot move down on bad news, buy fast.
  • It takes patience to wait for trends to be established or to wait for the correct setup to enter. You must have a precise entry level and reason for entering. Jumping in for dear that you'll miss out is not a good enough reason to buy.
  • Knowledge of human nature: Market hate to sell at even numbers. Keep stop orders just short of round whole number as well.

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And some good advices read from Createwealth8888's post:

To not GAMBLE in the stock market, you can do one or more of these
  1. Leave your capital invested and focus on collecting stock dividends and likely over a long period you will finally recover all your capital plus more.
  2. Periodically recover your capital plus some capital gains and re-invest when stock market presents another opportunity.
  3. Periodically collect both stock dividends and some capital gains and re-invest when stock market presents another opportunity.
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In a nutshell, 3 most important things an investor should possess are time, skill and discipline.

Appropriate allocation of capitals, not afraid to wait out the tough tides and the discipline not to be overly greedy. I like this quote from Warren Buffett-

"Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy".

Read his post too on a 'Touchstone' story: Opportunity in the stockmarket?

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